If you have clicked on this link you already have a, probably, strong opinion on the topic. So I want to be clear from the first (second) line exactly what this article is NOT about. It is not about the spectacle of volleyball. It is not about teaching volleyball. It is not about educating spectators and fans about the game. For the record, I have an opinion on all those things, but they are different articles.
This article has one single goal, to answer the question ‘Do serve errors impact the outcome of a match negatively?’.
The best place to start is with actual matches that have been played, preferably a lot of matches.
I took the entire data set of the 2025 Volleyball Nations League, 117 matches in all. 18 of the top teams in the world participated, and each played at least 12 matches. We can reasonably assume that the matches were representative of men’s volleyball at the highest level. I then uploaded the matches into Science Untangled so we can do some analysis. The Volleyball Reporting app, includes the possibility to determine Win Indicators, i.e. how different statistical standards impact winning and losing.
The following chart represents the number of sets played and the number of serve errors per set. Green and red show whether a set is won or lost.
The eyeball test reveals that it looks remarkably even all the way through the range. The app also provides the option to set a particular level and the win probability is calculated. In the chart above the level is set at eight (8) serve errors per set. Eight serve errors occurs infrequently (only 5.6% of the time) but the team making 8 or more errors still wins over a third of the time.1
What happens if I check the difference in serve errors? Surely that would show something. The chart below shows the difference in serve errors.
If I set the standard at four (4), i.e. four more serve errors than the opponent, that the team still wins 40% of the time.
‘How can this be? You can’t just give away points’.
Firstly, this is what actually happens. It is not a trick of data. If what happens doesn’t fit an expectation, then it is necessary to review and revise the expectation.
The explanation, in many / most cases is maths. In a volleyball set, the number of sideouts won (i.e. points after the opponent’s serve), is equal for both teams, plus or minus one. It is inherent in the structure of the game. The difference in any set is the number of break points, i.e. points won on serve. We know that after every break point, the same team serves again. More break points equals more serves. Do you see where I’m going here? The team that wins the set has more serves and therefore has more opportunities for serve errors. For example, Team A wins 25-20 and has 25 serves while Team B has 20 serves. Both teams have 20% serve errors. Team A has 5 serve errors, Team B has 4 serve errors. Maths.
Maths dictates that serving more errors in a given set is not just possible, but indeed likely. The more one serves the more total errors.
After that we can talk about volleyball being an extremely complex interaction of multiple skills and situations performed under pressure with massive time constraints by humans with all their foibles. We can talk about the difficulty of scoring break points and the necessity (or not) of serving with high. But first we have to acknowledge maths.
- If you are wondering why the numbers don’t add up to 100, I was too. Here is an explanation:
Set 1: Team A (won) 8 errors, team B (lost) 4 errors
Set 2: Team A (won) 8 errors, team B (lost) 8 errors
>=8 errors = 3/4 (75%) of sets, 2/3 wins (67%)
<8 errors = 1/4 (25%) of sets, no wins (0%)
About Mark Lebedew:
Mark Lebedew authors the At Home on the Court Blog. He coaches professionally in Poland, from january 2021 with eWinner Gwardia Wrocław, in season 2019/20 with Aluron Virtu CMC Warta Zawiercie and in the period 2015-2018 with KS Jastrzębski Węgiel. That follows five seasons Germany where his Berlin Recycling Volleys won three straight league titles and a CEV Champions League bronze medal. He has prior professional experience in Belgium and Italy. Mark was also Head Coach for the Australian Men’s National Team. From 2021/2022 until the end of the 2023/2024 season he was at the helm of VfB Friedrichshafen, while in 2022 he led the Slovenian national team during the Volleyball Nations League. In the 2024/2025 season, Mark Lebedew takes charge of the Netherlands’ team, Nova Tech Lycurgus. Starting from the 2025/2026 club season, he took charge of the Polish team PSG Stal Nysa S.A.
Mark partnered with his brother and father to translate and publish “My Profession: The Game“, the last book by legendary Russian coach, Vyacheslav Platonov.
With John Forman, he is behind the Volleyball Coaching Wizards project (link http://volleyballcoachingwizards.com/) which identifies great coaches from all levels, making their experience, insights, and expertise available to people all over the world. The project has produced multiple books, a in e-book format available here ( link to http://bit.ly/34yakou ) or at Amazon here (link https://amzn.to/2JRqTE6).
In 2021, he launched project Webinars and Presentations on Demand. If you are interested for coaching presentations and webinars available on demand, click here.
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